News Release: HAMILTON, Bermuda – If an election were held tomorrow, the outcome would be far from clear. While the PLP were ahead of the OBA, their 10-percentage point lead was within the margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percent. Thus the two parties would fight a very close race. Further evidence of the closeness of the race lies in the fact that more than a quarter of voters are either not sure (15%) or will not vote at all (10%). Likewise, 5 percent would be willing to vote for independent candidates or a new party, making the outcome even less clear. In fact, the ‘not sures’, those who will not vote, and the “independents/new party” supporters, comprise the major threat to the ruling PLP.  Just 3 percent stated that they would vote for the Freedom Democratic Movement. 

Voter Intentions

Gender and Race

By demographics, and in particular gender, there were differences among voters. Some 38 percent of males and 36 percent of females would vote for the ruling PLP, while 29 percent of males and 26 percent of females would vote for the OBA. By race, the differences were significant. Nearly half (49%) of Black voters would vote for the PLP, and just 12 percent of Whites. In contrast, 61 percent of Whites would vote for the OBA, with just 12 percent of Blacks saying that they would do so. Of those stating that they would note vote, Blacks were twice as likely to opt out of politics (13% versus 6%). 

Age Groups and Income

By age groups, the results were also telling. While both of the major parties (OBA and PLP) held an equal share of the 18-34 vote (26%), the PLP were able to garner a larger share of the 55 and over vote (40% compared to 30%). The PLP also took 34 percent of the 35-54 voters compared to 21 percent for the OBA. Those who were most inclined to say that they would not vote were between the ages of 35 and 54 (17%), and 18 and 34 (16%). Just 7% of the older voters (55 and over) would not vote. By household income, the highest income group, those households earning $156,000 or more, hedged their bets with 36 percent of them equally voting for the OBA and the PLP. The PLP garnered the largest share of the lower earners (less than $76,000), with the OBA taking 22 percent of those voters. Among middle-income voters (between $76,000 and $156,000), 35 percent would vote for the PLP while 27 percent would vote for the OBA. Some 13 percent of middle-come voters would not vote, as  would 10 percent of lower-income voters and 6 percent of upper-income voters.

  • The survey was conducted among 368 voters by random telephone dialling and online. The survey was carried out between July 3rd and August 7th, and has a margin of error of (plus or minus)  ± 5.1%.