One report said: “The past five years have featured a flurry of hurricane activity in Bermuda.
“The 11-mile-long island has suffered three direct hurricane landfalls, including Fay and Gonzalo in 2014 and major Hurricane Nicole in 2016.
:A number of other storms, including Humberto, Karl and Gabrielle in 2013, all passed close enough to shave the island with their eyewalls. The number of hits for such a small target is remarkable.”
As of 5am Friday, Jerry was located at 18.4N 58.7W, moving WNW at 16 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, some 490 miles east of the Leeward Islands.
It is the 10th named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season and follows Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda, which caused heavy flooding in southeastern Texas on Thursday.
Across the continental divide, the National Hurricane Center is keeping tabs on three tropical storms and an additional tropical wave. Lorena, Mario and Kiko are all swirling within a 2,000 mile stretch, each with sustained winds between 65 and 70 mph. There’s also an area to watch west of Kiko, about 1,200 miles east of Hawaii, but its probability of strengthening is minimal.
What’s with this onslaught of tropical activity? Forecasters say part of it is just the time of year as mid- to late September is “the climatological heart of hurricane season”.
“There are two other factors aiding in this tempestuous barrage: a convectively coupled Kelvin wave, and the Madden-Julian oscillation. They are both overturning circulations of different scales in the tropical/equatorial atmosphere,” the NHC said.
Essentially, during “certain phases of their interaction, upward, rising motion over the Atlantic can be enhanced”, which boosts developing tropical cyclones, “favoring a potential increase both in frequency and intensity”.
These features are expected to keep the tropics active into early October,
Over the past five years there has been “a flurry of hurricane activity in Bermuda”.
One report said: “The 11-mile-long island has suffered three direct hurricane landfalls, including Fay and Gonzalo in 2014 and major Hurricane Nicole in 2016.
“A number of other storms, including Humberto, Karl and Gabrielle in 2013, all passed close enough to shave the island with their eyewalls.
“The number of hits for such a small target is remarkable.”